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Pre-Q2 2025: Things to be aware of

(Fornebu, 18 June 2025) - Before entering our silent period on July 1, as a service to the equity analyst community, Telenor Investor Relations would like remind analysts about relevant factors to consider for the quarter. All items listed are in principle publicly known, e.g. through our quarterly earnings calls, published reports and press releases, local regulators’ announcements, news articles, websites, or publicly available offers. IR will conduct a sell-side call on June 19 (09.00 CET) going through these points, followed by optional individual Q&A calls with analysts over the following days.

High-level perspectives:

  • Nordics: Back-book price increases continued to take effect across the Nordics in Q2.

  • Norway: The timing of the back-book changes within the quarter is earlier compared to last year by approximately half a quarter. Around 1 million customers from Lyse/Ice were activated as national roamers from mid-March, with full effect from Q2.

  • FCF-related: Several sequentially incremental payouts expected, see details below.

Norway

Portfolio adjustments
New (pre-Q2 25):

  • Mobile back-book: main-brand migration notified as of mid-March, taking effect in from mid-April. Scope and magnitude somewhat wider and higher than last year.

  • Fixed (TV and Broadband) back-book: Full effect of the changes made in Q1.

Mentioned in previous quarters:

  • Q1 2025: In February 2025, Telenor launched an updated main brand mobile portfolio. The new security feature “Number alert” were added in all tariffs. Front-book: prices for most of the subscription were increased by 20-40 NOK (3-6%). Back-book increases for almost all existing broadband/TV customers. Average above-the-line list price increases were 5% and 14% for SDU and MDU customers, respectively, but note that local BTL offers may apply. Effect from March 1st.

  • Q3 2024: From end-September, Telenor increased front-book prices across the main brand portfolio by 30 NOK (4% - 9%). Talkmore increased front-book prices by NOK20 (8-10% for the low end of the subscription range and 3-4% for the high end).

  • Q2 2024: back-book changes for a significant number of B2C customers on both brands in Norway was made on a more-for-more basis from May/June.

  • Q1 2024: March: New mobile portfolio with more value-added features launched.

  • Q1 2024: Feb – Apr: Fixed back-book prices (keep in mind that these are subject to targeted promotions, rebates and campaigns) increased by 8-9%

Sweden

Portfolio adjustments
New (pre-Q2 25)

B2C

  • Mobile back-book: price increase for a small part of the portfolio, the unbound customers, of 15% on average, effective from April 2025.

Fixed

  • During Q1 and Q2 gradual back-book changes ranging from 6-14% for parts of portfolio.

Mentioned in previous quarters

  • Q1 2025: On the mobile side, a front-book M4M raise on the two lowest B2C main-brand data buckets of 11-14% (30-50 SEK). Extra-sim price increased by 14% (+30 SEK). SME: small back-book migration with ARPU uplift around +20 SEK. Fixed: Front-book change of by approx. +10% for open fibre.

  • Q4 2024: B2B SME front-book price increases on the portfolio in the range of SEK 50-60 (10%-30%), with back-book price increases on a small part of the customer base.

  • Q2 2024: After termination of the Telenor main brand 35 GB subscription during Q2 some minor back book changes has been done to capture potential.

  • Q1 2024: Adjusted selective main-brand Telenor data bucket tariffs by 17% for (15 GB à 20 BG from SEK 299-349, and 5GB from SEK 229 à 269) (front-book).

  • Q1 2024: Main brand fixed broadband and Ownit brand: Raised front-book prices for open fibre with ~8% in February.

  • Q4 2023 – Q1 2024: Main brand TV front-book prices on one of the SDU TV-subscriptions were increased by 7% in November 2023, followed by back-book increases (affecting half of the TV-base) in February 2024.

Finland

Market commentary: Usage of gift vouchers in Finland is very active but has normalised since Q4.

Portfolio adjustments:

New (pre-Q2 25):

  • Launched new B2C portfolio called ‘Huoleton’ with security feature on browsing security across, postpaid, prepaid, MBB and fixed. Mobile list prices are EUR 0-5 higher than on previous portfolio, campaign prices unchanged.

  • Back-book changes to parts of TV portfolio during Q2.

Mentioned in previous quarters

  • Q1 2025: Entry-level (10 Mbps) subscription increased by 3 EUR to 19.99 EUR

  • Q4 2024: B2B monthly prices raised by 5-6% with effect from November and December 2024.

  • Q3 2024: B2C Fixed: increased price for add-on broadband speed for housing associations of approx. 2 EUR with effect from Q4 2024 (back-book).

  • Q2 2024: B2B: Price increases of approx. 4-5%. B2C Fixed: increased price for add-on speed for housing association customers of approx. 2 EUR as of June 5 (front book).

  • Q1 2024: In B2C main brand, a new subscription; "DNA mini (10 Mbps)" (increased speed on the lowest price point) at a price of 20 EUR/month. In B2B, fixed and mobile (DNA) prices will be increased with around 4-5% on a full-year basis. Both front and back-book increases will be completed through multiple rounds during the year. This is in line with what was done at the same time in 2023.

  • Q4 2023: B2C sub-brand: Price increase in November across the Moi portfolio of 3-4 EUR in conjunction with expansion from digital-only to physical distribution with S-Group, Finland’s largest grocery chain.

Denmark

Portfolio adjustments:

New (pre-Q2 25):

  • Back-book increase announced for small part of the subscriber base.

Mentioned in previous quarters:

  • Q1 25: Main-brand front-book price increase on B2C Mobile of 10 DKK for smartphone subscriptions and MBB subscriptions. Back-book migrations from January with increase of 10 DKK on ~80% of smartphone subscription base and a smaller part (~30% of base) of MBB. Fighter brand CBB increased back-book prices with 10 DKK on small part of base. Fixed: price increase of 30 DKK on ~30% of base

  • Q4 24: Main brand: From start of December, front-book mobile price increase of 10 DKK across all subscriptions. Back-book increase from with effect from January 2024 covering around one quarter of the mobile customer base.

  • Q2 24: Telenor DK and CBB have increased price on a small number of legacy subscribers with avg. 10 DKK (legacy base which were not priced in Q1). Minor revenue impact.

  • Q1 24: New more-for-more portfolios in B2C mobile with front book effects from November 2023 for our main brand, and from October 2023 for the CBB brand. Migration to new portfolio for existing customers initiated into the new year 2024.

  • Q4 23: New more-for-more portfolio with front-book increases effective from end-November (both main brand and CBB)

Grameenphone

  • According to the BTRC, the number of mobile subscribers in Bangladesh increased by 0.4 mn MoM in April.

  • As per the BTRC, Grameenphone added 1.4mn subs in April, and increased the base by 1.5mn subs YOY while the overall market subscriber count came down 7mn subs YOY.

CelcomDigi

True Corporation

Amp

  • We have talked about the structural challenges for Linx (related to A2P messaging) for several quarters, which has affected Amp’s overall performance.

  • Amp’s EBITDA was down 56% in Q1 due to Linx. After a growth quarter in Q4, our CFO said that “we believe Amp will return to a more consistent growth from the second half of 2025”.

Net financials, associates and balance sheet

Telenor’s bond debt was 63% fixed-rate and c37% variable-rate at the end of Q1 2025. In nominal terms, 49bn fixed and 29bn variable. The fixed rate was 2.5% in Q4 and floating rate was 3.1%; blended 2.8%.

  • In Q2 2024, there was a NOK 450m positive impact on the net financial items from a fair value reassessment relating to our indirect holding structure in True, driven by the share-price development in True.

  • Our financial debt is mainly in EUR, SEK, and USD in addition to some NOK. Depreciation of NOK will typically increase the FX element of financial costs, while appreciation will decrease financial costs.

  • On April 1, we received settlement for a EUR 750mn bond, with a fixed coupon 3.375%, maturing on 1 April 2032. We repaid another bond maturity in May.

  • The bond settled on 01. April 2025. The proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes, including refinancing of existing debt, with the first Maturity in May 2025.

  • FX sensitivity on net leverage: we estimate that 10% of NOK depreciation (against all currencies) would result in a net leverage increase of 0.1x after one year (when LTM EBITDA impact of the FX change has had full effect), while the immediate impact on leverage would be around 0.2x increase.

FCF and net-debt-related items:

FCF-related items we have pointed out will affect the quarter, cet. par.:

  • Seasonally higher interest payments, normally 0.4-0.5bn sequentially higher in Q2 & Q4.

  • ~NOK 1bn outflow relating to the dividend payment in Grameenphone (non-controlling interests and withholding tax on Telenor’s portion (with approx. 0.1 bn of which being WHT booked on the tax line).

  • ~NOK -0.3 bn expected outflow relating to phasing of working capital in Asia.

  • ~NOK -0.4 bn of spectrum payments in Grameenphone and Denmark.

  • ~NOK -0.3 bn of expected payments relating to the VAT provisions in the Nordics that were taken in Q4 and Q1.

  • Note that the lease average has been indicated to be averaging at ~NOK1.1 bn per quarter, which is above the latest consensus.

Other cash-flow item comments we have made:

  • In Q4 2025 we will make the second instalment on the spectrum renewal from 2026 made in the Q3 2023 auction in Sweden (50% of Telenor’s 50% share of N4M price SEK 1,475 bn).

  • For Telenor Fiber AS, we normally pay dividends (including to the minority shareholders) in Q1 and Q3.