Pre-Q1 2026: Housekeeping items

Updated 24 March 13.15 CET

All items listed are publicly known, e.g. through our quarterly earnings calls, published reports, presentations and press releases, local regulators’ announcements, news articles, websites, or publicly available offers.

As communicated on our website on 9 March, IR will conduct a call for sell-side analysts on 24 March (09.00 CET) going through these points. As always, we are available for additional Q&A and general catch-up calls upon request.

We expect the following for Telenor Nordics in 2026:

• Low-single digit organic growth in service revenues;

• Mid-single digit growth in adjusted EBITDA;

• Around 14% capex to sales (excluding leases).

For the Telenor Group in 2026, we expect:

• Low-to-mid-single-digit organic growth in adjusted EBITDA;

• Free cash flow before M&A excluding dividends from associated companies and incremental spectrum commitments (vs CMD 2025 level) of NOK 10-11 billion.

In conjunction with the Q4 report, presentation and Q&A, we made the additional comments:

• The adjusted organic EBITDA growth outlook for the Nordics excludes a negative impact related to transfer of business of approximately NOK 0.2 billion from Nordics. Around half of this amount will have a corresponding positive impact in Telenor Connexion (Amp).

• We expect to see significant variations between quarters in 2026, for the following reasons:

  • Significant variability in the comparable periods of 2025, creating base effects. In Q1 and Q3 we had negative items weighing on performance in Norway and Finland respectively, while we saw unusually strong performance in Q2 and Q4.

  • EBITDA growth in the Nordics will continue to be supported by the positive year-on-year impact from the Lyse Tele roaming agreement in Norway until mid-March. As a consequence, growth from the second quarter will face significantly tougher year-on-year comparables. We expect the full-year 2026 revenues from the agreement to be broadly in line with 2025.

  • The timing of the already communicated back-book price increases in Norway is one month earlier than in 2025. So far this year, the number of subscriptions subject to more-for-more migration is only two, which is significantly lower than last year.

  • In the Q4 presentation we commented on the intra-year profile of the FCF before M&A and dividends from associated companies, saying it would would be similar to the previous year. In 2025, the profile was approx. 1/3 in H1, and 2/3 in H2.

• Key sensitivities for the group EBITDA growth outlook will be the competitive environment in the Nordics as well as macroeconomic development in Bangladesh. In the Q4 report we stated that we believe it is prudent to take a cautious approach to an economic recovery.

• In the Q4 report we estimated the effective tax rate for 2026 estimated to be around 26%, excluding effects from the disposal of True Corporation.

• The first tranche of the True sale has been completed. 24.95% of the shares in True Corporation has been sold and NOK 30 billion received, see separate OSE release. Buybacks are set to start following our May AGM.

• Telenor Nordics has continued to execute on its services-first commercial strategy, with a new secure connectivity product for families recently launched in Norway and several more-for-more portfolio changes having been communicated to customers through the region. The breadth of the back-book changes to date on the mobile side have been somewhat narrower than last year in Norway. In Denmark, competition is tough but with generally increased pricing. In Finland, we have seen a gradual recovery from strongly promotional pricing in the previous quarter.

• When considering our 2026 Outlook and making growth projections, remember to lower the 2025 EBITDA baseline in the Nordic for business transfers amounting to ~NOK 0.2 bn (more precisely, close to NOK 250 mn, see section below), and adjusting up the Amp/Connexion baseline by close to NOK 150 mn.

• As suggested in the CMD material and comments, 2026 will be the year with the most significant transformation-related costs in the Nordics, especially in Norway and Denmark with opex flat to potentially up in 2026. Accordingly, in Q4, we reported increased spending on robustification and transformation projects. These projects are ongoing in H1 2026 and will continue through the year, gradually yielding effects towards the end of the year and into 2027.

• As stated in the most recent results presentation, churn rose across markets in Q4 particularly in Finland where operators offered deep discounts to customers in parts of the quarter. While front-book pricing that can be observed in the Finnish market has gradually increased through Q1, the significant customer intake on low-priced contracts in November/December will have full quarterly effect from January. An effect of increased churn and thus higher gross subscriber additions is generally increased amortisation costs in following quarters (IFRS 15).

• Media have reported on energy shortages in Bangladesh caused by the war in the Persian Gulf. As widely reported in international media, the Bangladeshi economy is exposed multiple risks owing to this situation, depending on the duration and further impact on energy supply chains as well as remittances.

Norway
Q1 2026:

Mobile

• Launched “Sikre” on 11 March – offering customers seamless protection and connectivity in one simple package. It combines unlimited connectivity access with robust security features, automatically activating advanced filters for all family members, and is designed for both mobile and broadband users. Read more about the offering here: link

• M4M back-book increase of 50NOK for a meaningful portion of B2C customers from March 1, but around 40% fewer than last year.

Fixed

• Broadband:

  • SDU: M4M Back-book migrations covering most SDU customers incl. price increase of 5% on average. Effect from 1st March. Notably, only half of these gets the increase immediately, while others get once existing campaign periods end.

  • MDU: Back-book increase (+30-40 NOK) for the majority of the fiber and HFC customers. Effect from 1st March

• TV: More-for-more migration to new TV subscription portfolio from 1st March, with “T We & Streaming” (NOK 849) and “T We Classic” (NOK 699) replacing today’s “T-We” TV subscription bundle (NOK 690 NOK/month). Approximately 2/3 SDU customers migrate to “T We & Streaming”; 1/3 to “T We Classic”.

• Fixed wireless access: Above-the-line (ATL) back-book price adjustment for fixed wireless access customers (avg. +50 NOK /+6.5%). Effect from 1st of January.

Price and portfolio changes in previous quarters:

• Q4 2025: TV entertainment service “Streamix” was launched mid-November.

• Q3 2025: Mobile B2C front-book price increases made late September of NOK20-50.

• Q2 2025: Mobile back-book: main-brand migration notified as of mid-March, taking effect in from mid-April. Scope and magnitude somewhat wider and higher than last year. Fixed (TV and Broadband) back-book: Full effect of the changes made in Q1.

• Q1 2025: In February 2025, Telenor launched an updated main brand mobile portfolio. The new security feature “Number alert” were added in all tariffs. Front-book: prices for most of the subscription were increased by 20-40 NOK (3-6%). Back-book increases for almost all existing broadband/TV customers. Average above-the-line list price increases were 5% and 14% for SDU and MDU customers, respectively, but note that local BTL offers may apply. Effect from March 1st.

Sweden
Q1 2026:

• Telenor Sweden won an award for Best Network in Sweden, with wins in 11 of 14 categories in the OpenSignal rankings (link in Swedish).

• Mobile:

  • No front-book changes have been done in Q1.

  • In terms of back-book changes, a small share of the B2C main-brand customers have been migrated on a more-for-more basis to the prices announced last year; new list prices are around 15% higher.

• Fixed & TV:

  • Fibre back-book price increase of 40 SEK with effect from 1 February 2026 for a small share of subs

  • TV packages back-book price increase of 20 SEK effective from 1 February 2026.

Price changes in previous quarters:

• Q4 2025: Mobile front-book price changes on two minor product categories. Fibre front-book price change of 40 SEK.

• Q3 2025: No list price changes.

• Q2 2025: Mobile B2C back-book: price increase for a small part of the portfolio, the unbound customers, of 15% on average, effective from April 2025. Fixed B2C: During Q1 and Q2 gradual back-book changes ranging from 6-14% for parts of portfolio.

• Q1 2025: On the mobile side, a front-book M4M raise on the two lowest B2C main-brand data buckets of 11-14% (30-50 SEK). Extra-sim price increased by 14% (+30 SEK). SME: small back-book migration with ARPU uplift around +20 SEK. Fixed: Front-book change of by approx. +10% for open fibre.

DNA, Finland
Q1 2026:

• Front-book campaigns have moderated QTD over the deep discounts in Q4, the dilution from which will have full effect from January.

• QTD there has been a process of recovery in average ATL prices including some increases mid-March, although one major operator recently lowered its shop-in-shop prices.

• Still, campaigns that can be observed across channels imply pricing on incoming customers are below last year.

Mentioned in previous quarters:

• Q4 2025: No ATL price changes, seasonal campaigns with significantly discounted offers on both ATL and BTL, and use of gift vouchers.

• Q2 2025: New B2C portfolio with security features. Mobile list prices EUR 0-5 higher than on previous portfolio, campaign prices unchanged. Back-book changes to parts of TV portfolio.

• Q1 2025: Entry-level (10 Mbps) subscription increased by 3 EUR to 19.99 EUR

Denmark
Q4 2025:

• Main brand increased front-book prices on selected subscriptions of 10-20 DKK. Fighter brand CBB increased front-book prices by 10-20 DKK

• Back-book increase of 10 DKK announced for ~30% of main brand voice base, with effect from mid-December 2025. Fighter brand CBB increased back-book prices by 10 DKK for ~80% of voice base, effective 1 January 2026.

• In the premium market, most players have increased prices by up to 10-40 DKK. However, general subsidy levels are increasing

Mentioned in previous quarters:

• Q3 2025: Lowest price point removed for our no-frills brand. No further list price changes QTD.

• Q2 25: Back-book increase announced for small part of the subscriber base. Front-book: introduced entry-level main-brand mobile subscription (lower price point).

• Q1 25: Main-brand front-book price increase on B2C Mobile of 10 DKK for smartphone subscriptions and MBB subscriptions. Back-book migrations from January with increase of 10 DKK on ~80% of smartphone subscription base and a smaller part (~30% of base) of MBB. Fighter brand CBB increased back-book prices with 10 DKK on small part of base. Fixed: price increase of 30 DKK on ~30% of base

• Q4 24: Main brand: From start of December, front-book mobile price increase of 10 DKK across all subscriptions. Back-book increase from with effect from January 2024 covering around one quarter of the mobile customer base.

Grameenphone

• Grameenphone acquired 10 MHz of 700MHz spectrum in January. The first fee instalment of approximately BDT 2.2 bn, to be booked as “pre-payments of RoU” in the Q1 accounts (not leasing as of yet), has been made.

• Elections were held in Bangladesh on 12 February 2026. While successful, the elections came with several restrictions on movements. As reported by media, energy shortages and rationing measures has led to early closures of schools and universities prior to the Eid holiday.

• According to the BTRC, the number of mobile subscribers in Bangladesh decreased by 90k MoM in January 2025. As per the BTRC, Grameenphone gained 170k subscribers in January. As per the BTRC, Grameenphone’s sub count was down 250k YoY, outperforming its relative share of the market as overall market subscribers were down 790k YOY.

• The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to significant disruption in global energy markets, leaving Bangladesh particularly exposed due to its reliance on imported fuels and LNG. While the operating environment for Grameenphone remains stable, these developments, in addition to severe seasonal storms, have started to impact economic activity in Bangladesh.

• Consequently, Grameenphone issued a stock exchange notice stating that business momentum in the beginning of 2026 has been softer than anticipated and they expect Q1 performance to be moderately impacted. Compared to the same period last year, Grameenphone expects Q1 2026 revenues to be around 2% lower, while EBITDA is expected to decline by around 3%. See Telenor stock exchange release

CelcomDigi

• Interim Q4 dividend of MYR 3.6 sen per share (flat QoQ) to be paid by end of March.

• In previous quarterly presentations and our CMD, we noted that the 5G landscape in Malaysia remains a challenge for CelcomDigi, with the unprecedented dual-network model resulting in headwinds for the company.

• Following completion of the Ministry of Finance (MoF) on March 6, DNB (Digital Nasional Berhad) is now effectively fully privately owned by CelcomDigi and two other telcos (equal shares). In conjunction with the settlement, MYR 327.87mn was paid each by CelcomDigi and the two other telcos. In addition, CelcomDigi will assume its proportionate share of liabilities amounting to MYR 161.2mn. See CelcomDigi stock exchange announcement and news article summary.

• In CelcomDigi’s 2024 Annual Report, the 16.3% stake of CelcomDigi in DNB is reflected as “Shareholder Advance” with only 0.2% of the DNB being formally owned and reported according to the equity method. This is expected to change following the privatisation and restructuring.

• For the Q4 results, see CelcomDigi | Investor Relations.

Amp

• At our 2025 CMD, Amp communicated a Net Asset Value (NAV) estimate of its portfolio of NOK10-13bn (post Allente exit), whereof the assets that are consolidated on EBITDA level makes up about half. In Q4, we updated the NAV to NOK14.3 bn, of which the consolidated portfolio is contributing with NOK10.6 bn.

• A spreadsheet overview of the portfolio can be downloaded here: Our companies - Telenor Amp - Telenor Group

Mentioned in previous quarters:

• Ongoing structural challenges for Linx (related to A2P messaging and voice interconnect) several quarters.

• In April 2025, KNL signed a 10-year contract with the Finnish and Swedish Defence Forces through NORDEFCO (Nordic Defence Cooperation).

• In August, KNL announced orders of EUR 15m under the above-mentioned contract. The orders are scheduled for delivery completion by the end of 2025.

Corporate Functions and eliminations

• From a sequential perspective, note that Q4 2025 did not have the usual back-end-loaded negative EBTIDA profile.

• While this was partly explained by some smoothening of the intra-year charge-out profile from 2025, the YOY improvement in Q4 was mainly due to lumpy external revenues from Telenor Procurement (approx. NOK 100 mn) Company and a NOK 75mn reversal in ‘other opex’ within Group Eliminations.

Business transfers

• As stated in the Outlook section of the Q4 2025 report, Managed IoT has been transferred from the Nordic Business Area to Amp (Telenor Connexion). In 2025, approximately NOK 170mn in mobile service revenues from Telenor Norway will now be reported as service revenues in Connexion. Mobile service revenues of NOK 30mn from Telenor Denmark and NOK 40mn from DNA have also been transferred, with similar levels of EBITDA (high-margin business). Total impact to Nordic’s mobile service revenues is around NOK 240mn (based on 2025 figures). The EBITDA of this business was just below NOK 150mn in 2025.

• Telenor Norway’s Coastal Radio Service has been run on a build-operate-transfer arrangement for the Government and was transferred to the state as of January 1st. As a consequence, this business will no longer contribute to Telenor Norway’s results. The business generated NOK 190m in “other revenues” on Fixed in 2025, with close to NOK100m in EBITDA.

• As a consequence, the annual EBITDA run-rate of Telenor Nordics will be approx. NOK250mn lower based on the 2025 level. Organic growth rates in the Outlook for the Nordics adjust for the transfers (ie transferred business is subtracted from the 2025 base).

• As parts of the Nordic transformation two transfers of business to Amp from Telenor Norway took place in the Cybersecurity and B2C Cloud (MinSky  Jottacloud JV) areas from 1 September 2024 and 1 May 2025, respectively.

• The EBITDA impact was very small and not adjusted for in the Organic calculation, but in Q2 and Q3 of 2025 the transfer effect explained around half of the opex reductions in the Nordics. In Q4 the effect was smaller.

Energy exposure

• In 2025, Telenor had around NOK 1.7 bn in net energy costs, NOK 0.7 bn of which in Asia.

• Telenor Nordics energy costs (reported as COGS) were more than 70% hedged in 2025. Telenor has long-term electricity PPAs in Norway, Finland and Denmark that hedge a majority of the energy consumption in our towers and network overall. In addition to the PPA’s we also have exposure to third-party energy costs. Telenor Sweden has a short-term rolling hedging arrangement in place (50-60% for 2026, 25% for 2027 and 10% for 2028).

• In Asia, energy costs (reported as Opex in Telenor’s reports, NOK 0.7 bn) are mainly electricity-related, as very few diesel generators have been needed in Bangladesh. So far, electricity prices have been subsidised and stable, but there is limited visibility into the Government’s ability to sustain these subsidies given the ongoing energy crisis in Asia due to the war in the Persian Gulf.

Net financials, associates, M&A and balance sheet

• Telenor’s bond debt was NOK 86bn, of which ~63% fixed-rate and ~37% variable-rate at the end of Q4 2025. The fixed rate was 2.6% and floating rate was 3.1%; blended 2.8%.

• Our financial debt is mainly in EUR, SEK, NOK, THB and USD.

• The mentioned settlement of the first payment in conjunction with the True exit of THB 98.8 bn (NOK 30bn) will have a notable positive impact on net gearing in Q1. The funds have been received prior to the payment of True’s final 2025 interim dividend expected in May, which will only be received for the remaining 5.35% stake in True.

• In our January 22nd OSE release on the True exit, we stated that based on the prevailing currencies at the time we expected to book an accounting gain in Q1 of NOK 14.7 bn, including NOK 1.6 bn accumulated OCI FX recycling effect. This gain will be booked on the associated company line but will of course need to be updated with the significantly changed currency rates since then (implying a somewhat lower gain). Note that no further recognition of lagged earnings from True will be made as the asset has now been sold at fair value. The remaining 5.35% stake and put/call option in True will be valued at fair value and gain/loss accounting will be applied over the financial items line.

• Hedging arrangements to convert THB to other currencies in line with the proposed use of proceeds have been put in place. The use of proceeds are:

  • A NOK 15 billion three-year buyback programme, expected to start in Q2, subject to the AGM on May 19 and following practical arrangements.

  • A EUR 1 billion bond maturity in May 2026.

  • Payment for the GlobalConnect Norway B2C acquisition, which is currently being processed by the Competition Authority. The process has taken more time than initially expected. Remedies have been offered and depending upon the process, closing is now seen to take place during Q3.

• Depreciation of the NOK will typically increase the FX element of financial costs, while appreciation will decrease financial costs.

• FX sensitivity on net leverage: we estimate that 10% of NOK depreciation (against all currencies) would result in a net leverage increase of 0.1x after one year (when LTM EBITDA impact of the FX change has had full effect), while the immediate impact on leverage would be around 0.2x increase.