Pre-Q3 2026: Housekeeping items

Published on 22 September 2026, 16.30 CEST

All items listed are publicly known, e.g. through our quarterly earnings calls, published reports, presentations and press releases, local regulators’ announcements, news articles, websites, or publicly available offers.

As communicated on our website two weeks in advance, IR will conduct a call for sell-side analysts on 23 September (09.00 CEST) going through the most salient points and open up for Q&A. As always, we are available for additional Q&A and catch-up calls upon request as needed.

On May 27, Telenor announced a new organisational structure and executive team, eliminating the previous business area layer. This will lead to savings of more than NOK 300m annually, from the end of the year when the organisation will be fully operational. The new Group Leadership Team was effective from 18 August. As a consequence, we are required to change our segment reporting accordingly from the third quarter. An analytical tool file with restated segment reporting is available to download from our quarterly results page. A summary of the changes is provided in the first tab of the excel file.

• Parts of our financial outlook has been provided for business area Nordics, which will no longer exist as a reporting segment from H2 2026.

• We plan to continue to provide financial outlook for an aggregate of the Nordic telco business units (Norway, Sweden, Denmark and DNA). The main difference between this aggregate and the business area are the administrative costs relating to the BA layer and the transfer of Telenor Shared Services to Other units. From a YOY growth perspective, the difference is marginal: For H1 2026, the organic growth differential measured on the Nordic BU aggregate and BA Nordics was +0.02% for SR and +0.17% for EBITDA, but note that this small differential might change as functions moved to the HQ that was previously part of BA Nordics is charged back to the BUs.

• Overall, the difference is expected to be negligible.

We expect the following for Telenor Nordics in 2026:

• Flat to low-single-digit organic growth in service revenues;

• Flat to low-single-digit organic growth in adjusted EBITDA;

• Around 14% capex to sales (excluding leases).

For the Telenor Group in 2026, we expect:

• Flat to slightly negative organic growth in adjusted EBITDA;

• Free cash flow before M&A excluding dividends from associated companies and incremental spectrum commitments (vs CMD 2025 level) of around NOK 10 billion.

We also noted that the TV VAT provision for 2020/2022 of NOK 0.2 billion is an item not related to the current year and as per our usual caveats is excluded from the Outlook.

Additional forward-looking commentary made in the Q2 report:

1. “Near-term EBITDA growth in the Nordics and Grameenphone will continue to be challenged by the following factors:

   • For Nordics, we expect peak opex growth in Q3 driven by continued high transformation activity in the Nordics and accounting-lag effects from commission spent in recent periods;

   • We continue to expect Nordic opex to be more evenly spread out in 2026 compared to 2025, with opex in Q3 above normal seasonality.

   • We expect the next phase of net transformation efficiencies becoming more material from the fourth quarter onwards.

   • Short term, we expect only modest improvement in Grameenphone due to the volatile macro situation, with recovery remaining uncertain. This remains a risk for the full year.”

2. On business transfers: The 2026 EBITDA growth outlook for the Nordics includes a negative impact of more than NOK 0.2 billion. NOK 0.1 billion of this amount relates to Managed IoT, which will have a corresponding positive impact in Telenor Connexion (Amp). The remainder relates to the pre-agreed transfer of coastal radio service to the Norwegian state. At present we continue to expect full-year 2026 revenues from the Lyse Tele roaming agreement in Norway to be broadly in line with 2025.

In conjunction with the Q2 presentation and Q&A, we made these additional comments:

• Our Nordic transformation activity and the profile of our commission amortisation schedule is set to drive opex increases in the very near term. This means that the underlying EBITDA improvement in Q3 will be temporarily held back by opex.

• We continued to expect full-year 2026 revenues from the Lyse Tele roaming agreement in Norway to be broadly in line with 2025

• In Q2 we saw slower-than-expected revenue growth, mostly in Norway and to some extent in Finland.

  • In Norway, this mainly related to increased promotional activity in B2C mobile in Norway (higher churn, pressure on ARPU growth) in Q2 and slow start for the value-added services that have been recently launched.

  • In Finland, it was related to a somewhat slower recovery of mobile ARPUs (flat QoQ) than we had expected given the consistent MoM improvement in new sales ARPUs seen between January through April, with June new sales ARPUs slightly below April. In addition, fixed competition in Finland continued to be tough in Q2, affecting H2.

• For the full year we mentioned the following items in Q2 as further elements of the lowered outlook:

  • Somewhat higher opex in Nordics related to commission amortisation. By the nature of IFRS 15 when subscriber acquisition costs increase, remember only parts of the increase flows through to opex while the hits FCF (on the “other cash flow items” line).

  • NOK 0.2 billion loss of revenues in Telenor Procurement Company due to a contract cancellation from True Corporation. Direct EBITDA and FCF impact.

  • NOK 0.1 billion increase in opex for special projects on Group level - mainly portfolio-related. Direct EBITDA and FCF impact.

  • NOK 0.2 billion EBITDA and FCF effect from expected deconsolidation of Connexion from September.

• Reiteration of the “Business transfer” effects: As stated in the Q4, Q1 and Q2 reports, the 2026 EBITDA growth outlook for the Nordics includes a negative impact of more than NOK 0.2 billion of businesses transferred elsewhere from 1 January. Around half this amount billion of this amount relates to Managed IoT, which will have a corresponding positive impact in Telenor Connexion. The remainder relates to the pre-agreed transfer of coastal radio service to the Norwegian state.

• Rising electricity prices: In addition to the above points, energy prices have been increasing in the Nordics QTD. Energy prices are being booked as COGS in the Nordic. Looking at the capital regions at Nordpool, you will find that QTD spot rates are up ~50%, ~25%, and 100% for Norway, Sweden, Denmark, respectively. Finland is down QTD, but up ~20% September to date. We are hedged around 70% on energy for the year in the Nordics overall through long-term PPAs in Norway, Denmark and Finland and partial rolling 12-month hedging in Sweden. We also face increased electricity prices in Bangladesh, which is spot and based on fixed, subsidised prices which increased around 20% from 1 June (booked as opex).

Telenor Norway

• Demanding YOY comp: Telenor Norway’s EBITDA grew at a 9.2% YoY in Q3 ’25 driven by high revenue growth and reduced opex, as step-up of IT transformation costs and site robustification initiatives started to ramp in the following quarter.

• Wholesale revenues: we have said that we expect the month-by-month slope of the NRA revenues with Lyse Tele to be slightly negative this year, although we expect full year revenues to be similar to last year (but for up to 12 months this year, versus 9.5 months of revenues in 2025).

• Seasonal QOQ opex drop to be less pronounced this year:

  • Opex last year was skewed towards Q4 (both for S&M and transformation costs)

  • Norway and Denmark to bear the brunt of the transformation implementation-related opex in the Nordics we said would be peaking in Q3.

  • We stated that increased churn and increased promotions in the Norwegian market in H1 can be expected to lead to YOY growth in subscriber acquisition cost amortisation in Norway and Denmark also in Q3.

• Promotional market for device bundles over the summer; competitor campaigns with unusually large discounts on a popular handset were visible on the market during the summer, both in third-party shops and a competitor website.

Telenor Sweden

• Sweden remains expected to be a fairly stable performer this year and has had a solid volume development in terms of subs in recent quarters. While the transformation initiatives have increased structural costs in Sweden, the volume trend is also driving sales and marketing costs.

• Fixed Service Revenues have been declining - but gross profits growing - due to our Fixed Transformation programme and increasing sales on 5G Broadband (FWA). The latter business is booked as mobile service revenues in Sweden (the same in Denmark).

• As per Q2, the total Swedish fixed customer base (including 5G Broadband) has been stable over the last couple of years, but with a significant increased profitability.

DNA

• In Q2, we said recovery in new-sales consumer mobile ARPUs was modest QOQ, as earlier campaign pricing continues to affect the customer base and ARPU for DNA's new sales did not improve much from March through June.

• In conjunction with Q2, we said that assuming continuation of the June new sales ARPU level, new-sales ARPU should return to YoY growth from September due to year-on-year comps declining MoM.

• Given that back-to-school campaigns in August-September last year were the prelude to the full-on price war started in Q4 by one of our competitors in the Finnish market, we are facing improving comps from mid-Q3. While we have not seen similar level of aggression recently, the market remains highly competitive.

• Also note the accounting correction relating to the treatment of gift vouchers made in Q3 ’25, a full-year catch-up effect of NOK 56m on revenues and NOK 70m on adj. EBITDA affected the Q3 25 numbers. Due to the increased promotional activity of the Finnish market in the interim period, we expect this YOY tailwind to be more than offset by increased negative revenues from cumulative gift vouchers in the interim year.

• Note that from mid-Q2, there has been limited use of gift vouchers on the market.

Telenor Denmark

• Telenor Denmark is in the middle of an IT transformation in 2026. As mentioned on the most recent earnings call, our performance in Denmark in Q3 is expected to be challenged by an increase in opex relating to this.

• We expect clear reductions in IT costs from 2027 as the transformation milestones are reached, implementation costs are behind us, and certain dual cost structures are discontinued.

Telenor Asia:

• Licences for four licence bands in Bangladesh expire on November 10. There are no official news on the licence renewal process and terms in Bangladesh, although preparations for the process have started.

• According to the BTRC, Grameenphone added 0.4m subscribers in July, representing approximately 2/3 of market net adds.

• The wholesale market energy-price shock due to the Iran War and partial retail-price adjustments have been putting pressure on government subsidies, availability of electricity, consumer spending and costs for businesses the region, particularly for Bangladesh.

• Nevertheless, Moody's changed Bangladesh's sovereign outlook from negative to stable in September, retaining its B2 rating. It cited improved reserves, a more flexible exchange rate and strong remittances as reasons external risks had become more balanced.

• For Grameenphone (55.8% owned), a potential de-bottlenecking the flow of commodities – especially LNG - through the Strait of Hormuz situation remains the key catalyst for a gradual macro improvement in Bangladesh.

• QTD consumer wallet pressure have continued as energy prices rose. Key energy price data points in the country:

  • Transport fuel prices are set monthly in Bangladesh and were stable through Q1 but increased by around 15% in mid-April. Petrol saw a small increase in June and another 14% from 21 September, and diesel prices increased 17% on 21 September.

  • Cooking gas (LPG) prices, a major household expense, has come down from high levels during May and June but are still 18% higher than on April 1st.

  • Regulated electricity tariffs saw a hike from June 1st of 17-20. Stable since.

• CelcomDigi in Malaysia (33.3% owned), is reported with one-quarter lag. For their full Q2 results, see CelcomDigi | Investor Relations

• GlobalConnect: Approval received for acquisition of GlobalConnect’s consumer business in Norway. Some measures are required prior to closing, implying that the net number of new subscribers to Telenor will be 125,000. Closing expected during H2 2026. See OSE announcement.

• Telenor Connexion: Announced agreement with Verdane to establish a joint ownership structure over Telenor Connexion was closed on 10 September (see OSE announcement). Telenor received SEK ~3.8bn in cash in addition to a seller credit of SEK ~0.8bn, while both parties commit to reinvest an additional SEK 2bn the company’s accretive growth journey. Link to original OSE announcement.

• Enivest: Announced agreement to acquire Enivest for NOK2.5 bn, one of the leading fibre operators in Western Norway, with approx. 29,000 subscribers. See OSE announcement.

• Bahnhof: Agreed to acquire a controlling stake in Swedish broadband provider Bahnhof in a transaction valuing the company at SEK 6.1 billion on an enterprise value basis, and subsequently launch a MTO. The acquisition will entail a multi-year period of synergy realisation and make Telenor Sweden’s second-largest fixed broadband provider. See OSE announcement.

Norway

Mobile:

• We launched “Sikre Mobil 5GB” on 27 August, adding to the security-bundle portfolio we have under the services-first strategy.

• One competitor has been particularly active with large device discounts for the summer campaigns, as seen on the web and in third-party retail stores.

Fixed:

• Some simplification of the B2C fixed portfolio along with NOK 50 back-book price increases from 1 November 2026.

Sweden

• New front-book main-brand mobile portfolio was launched end-May.

• Vimla, Telenor Sweden’s no-frills brand, launched sales of new handsets in addition to refurbished handsets.

• A minor number of customers have been notified of back-book price rises during August-October in accordance with our more-for-more value approach.

DNA

Mobile

• In Q2 DNA launched Huoleton Plus at an additional ~1 EUR increase (incl. VAT), which includes a number look-up service on top of the existing Huoleton security-bundled subscriptions. DNA also made an increase of EUR 3 (incl. VAT) for a subset of Moi subscribers.

• As in Q2, the market remains highly competitive.

Fixed

• As stated in Q2, competition in Fixed in Finland has intensified significantly during 2026.

Denmark

• Telenor Denmark is operating as a service provider within fixed (10% of revenues LTM to Q2). 5G Broadband is booked as mobile service revenues.

• A new fibre regulation for wholesale from 2027 has led to infrastructure owners to announce/indicate significantly increased wholesale prices from, leading to potential margin squeezes for independent resellers such as Telenor Denmark.

• Depending on the ability to shift this hike downstream, this could potentially make higher-margin 5G Broadband more attractive for end users.

• The net EBITDA effect for Telenor remains to be seen over time.

• Telenor’s bonds were ~71% fixed-rate and ~29% floating-rate as of end Q2.

• In Q2, the fixed rate was 2.6%, the floating rate was 3.1%, and the blended interest rate was 2.8%.

• Our financial debt is mainly in EUR, SEK, NOK and USD.

• Deprecation of NOK will typically increase the FX element of financial costs, while appreciation will decrease financial costs.

• Year 1 of Telenor’s ordinary 3-year buyback programme started in June. Shares valued at NOK 1.5 bn repurchased in the market so far.

• Completion rate for the market portion of year-1 buybacks was 54.2% as per 18 September 2026.

• The Norwegian state’s pro rata portion of the Year 1 buybacks will be made next year (with a small interest element), most likely in Q2 2027.

A reminder of items that are set to affect FCF in Q3:

• Seasonally lower net interest paid

• Seasonally low spectrum payments

• Higher QoQ capex in Grameenphone due to low-band rollout

• Pre-payment of TV VAT tax including interest of NOK0.2 bn

• Dividends to non-controlling shareholders in Grameenphone and Telenor Fiber AS.

• Already declared dividends from CelcomDigi to be received in Q3 (NOK0.3bn)