Pre-Q2 2026: Housekeeping items

Published 16 June 16.30 CEST

All items listed are publicly known, e.g. through our quarterly earnings calls, published reports, presentations and press releases, local regulators’ announcements, news articles, websites, or publicly available offers.

As communicated on our website on 2 June, IR will conduct a call for sell-side analysts on 17 June (09.00 CEST) going through these points. As always, we are available for additional Q&A and general catch-up calls upon request.

We expect the following for Telenor Nordics in 2026:

• Low single-digit organic growth in service revenues;

• Low-to-mid single digit growth in adjusted EBITDA;

• Around 14% capex to sales (excluding leases).

For the Telenor Group in 2026, we expect:

• Flat-to-low single-digit organic growth in adjusted EBITDA;

• Free cash flow before M&A excluding dividends from associated companies and incremental spectrum commitments (vs CMD 2025 level) of NOK 10-11 billion.

A few context reminders:

1. We stated in the Q4 report, and on the March housekeeping call: “We expect to see significant variations between quarters in 2026”

2. We stated in the Q1 2026 report: “EBITDA growth in the Nordics will be challenged in the second quarter by lapping of the Norwegian roaming agreement from mid-March, smaller impact of implemented back-book price migrations, lower prices in Finland and continued high transformation activity in the Nordics. Such spend, as well as sales and marketing spend, had a back-end-loaded profile in 2025, which is not expected to be the case in 2026.”

3. A key sensitivity for 2026 Group EBITDA growth will be the macroeconomic development in Bangladesh, which will depend on the duration of the Iran war.

   Headwinds in Q1 were back-end-loaded to March. Since then, fuel and electricity prices have increased. Short term, we expect service revenue growth to be negative in Grameenphone. A gradual recovery is uncertain but expected during H2, provided a Q2 opening of the Strait of Hormuz and gradual normalisation of energy and commodity supply chains.

4. We continue to expect the FCF before M&A excl. dividends from associates to be back-end loaded, similar to 2025 when it was around 2/3 in H2.

In conjunction with the Q1 report, presentation and Q&A, we made these additional comments:

• Business transfers with a total EBITDA impact of NOK 0.2bn:

  • Managed IoT from Nordics to Connexion (part of Telenor Amp) reduced Nordics’ SR growth by 0.5 p.p. and EBITDA growth by 1.1 p.p.

  • Transfers of Coastal Radio to the Norwegian State: Reduced Nordics EBITDA growth by 0.5 p.p.

• The Group EBITDA growth outlook for 2026 was lowered to reflect 1) the fact that we decided to not adjust for the business transfers within Nordics (approx. 1 p.p. YoY impact); and 2) top-line headwinds in Bangladesh and Finland.

Telenor Norway

• Telenor Norway grew at an exceptional 16% YoY in Q2 ’25. We have repeatedly reminded analysts that the outperformance on practically all P&L lines in Telenor Norway was out of the ordinary.

• In Q1 ’26, the EBITDA growth in Norway was +7.4%, and 9.2% ex. The abovementioned business transfers. These transfers will remain a headwind during Q2-Q4 before being lapped.

• Excluding the NOK 100m TV VAT in Q1 ’25 and the approx. NOK 120m increase in wholesale revenues from the NRA, the YoY growth is reduced to 0.6% for Q1 ’26.

• Other things being equal, this underlying 0.6% YOY EBITDA growth run-rate from Q1 faces additional sequential comp headwinds for Q2. Modifying factors for Q2 ‘26, based on what we have talked about in the past:

  • Breadth of back-book price increases is narrower this year (around 40-50% fewer customers subject to changes). The magnitude of the sequential impact last year was discussed in the Q2 2025 presentation and call.

  • QOQ timing headwind: One month of the price changes are already reflected by the Q1 numbers, which was not the case last year.

  • Wholesale revenues: we expect the month-by-month slope of the NRA revenues with Lyse Tele to be slightly negative this year, but similar to last year’s total for the full year (but for up to 12 months this year versus 9.5 months in 2025).

  • Sequential COGS comp: last year, gross profit was unusually strong QoQ with NOK 395m increase, due to a particularly favourable COGS development. Gross profits rose NOK 10-15mn more than the increase in SR and wholesale revenues, contrary to normal seasonality which usually is affected by higher presence of low-margin device revenues. In previous years, incremental QoQ gross profit not explained by SR and wholesale has been negative.

  • Sequential opex comp and differences to this year:

    • Opex last year was skewed to H2 (both for S&M and transformation costs)

    • In Q2 ’25 Opex was down NOK 178mn QoQ, partly helped by the transfer of MinSky to Jottacloud (Amp) from 1 May.

    • This year, we have expected to see continued high transformation project activity QoQ and union-negotiated wage increases a tad above last year from 1 April.

  • Normalising the sequential comp development for these items, the mentioned underlying YoY EBITDA growth run-rate of 0.6% from Q1 would be equivalent to a line-by-line-seasonally-adjusted negative 3-4% for Q2 – of course without considering the actual performance outcome for the quarter. We emphasise that the above is a way to think about seasonality mechanics based on previous periods and not in any way guidance for the quarter.

  • Competition: We noted in the Q1 call that we have seen price competition increasing in Norway recently, which affected our B2C growth. This has been notable in the Unlimited area in particular.

DNA

• The updated Outlook for the Nordics in Q1 was partially due to a moderated view on Finland. We saw close to one p.p. effect on Nordics’ EBITDA growth outlook for 2026 from the following elements:

  • Mobile (the major element):

    • Consistent improvement from the market situation in Q4 2025, but assuming a more gradual recovery than initially expected.

    • As of April, we said that that new sales APRUs had improved every month, but were still lower than one year ago, and renewals of customers still took place on lower ARPU than last year.

    • Note that there is currently some time lag between which a sale is made and when these customers are on-boarded due to remaining lock-up periods, a sales practise which has increased recently in the market.

  • Fixed (the minor element)

    • Sub mix: Change in the sub mix from SDUs (higher ARPUs) towards MDUs (lower ARPUs)

    • SDUs: were partially subject to significant retention discounts in Q1, weighing more than its relatively small share or the base due to higher SDU ARPUs at the outset.

    • MDUs: Some churn within the MDU base from housing associations with matured take-up of add-on speed subscriptions, to new housing associations contracts where upselling to individual apartment customers start from scratch.

  • B2B

    • Quite tough macro conditions in Finland have persisted for quite some time, leading to increasing amount of business bankruptcies in some sectors. Affected some of our customers in Q1.

• Also note the accounting correction done in Q3 ’25, which affected H1 ’25 figures as well: catch-up effect of NOK 56m on revenues and NOK 70m on adj. EBITDA. This represented a headwind for Q1, and will also do so for Q2, before becoming a tailwind in Q3.

• We have said we expect an incremental improvement QoQ, but service revenues still seen diluted in Q2 ’26 by new sales prices which is down YoY

Telenor Denmark

• We said in Q1 we expect a sequential EBITDA improvement in Q2 and in gradually in coming quarters, as expiry of introductory offers on the CBB Mix streaming product should help revenues - and gross margins, in particular.

• Opex in Denmark was up in Q1 due to higher amortisation of commissions. In Q4, we reduced expected customer lifetime for sales made in external channels, leading to higher amortisation. Will be lapped in Q4 2026.

• We expect clear reductions in IT costs from 2027 as the transformation milestones are reached, implementation costs are behind us, and certain dual cost structures are discontinued.

Sweden

• Sweden is expected to be a fairly stable performer this year.

• Note that FWA (5G Broadband) is booked as mobile service revenues in Sweden and Denmark, and that our Swedish fixed customer base would stable over the last couple of years including the 5G Broadband subs.

Net financials, associates, M&A and balance sheet

• Simplified organisational structure and changes to executive management group. Business Area layer removed. Will lead to non-negligible administrative cost savings into next year, which are reflected by the ambitions already set out at the CMD. The composition of the Group Management team will be updated accordingly, effective 18 August 2026. Updated segment reporting will be presented in due course. See announcement.

• GlobalConnect: Approval received for acquisition of GlobalConnect’s consumer business in Norway. Some measures are required prior to closing, implying that the net number of new subscribers to Telenor will be 125,000. Closing expected during autumn 2025. See OSE announcement.

• Telenor Connexion: Announced agreement with Verdane to establish a joint ownership structure over Telenor Connexion, in a transaction valuing the company at SEK 7.5bn. Telenor will receive SEK ~3.8bn in cash in addition to a seller credit of SEK ~0.8bn, while both parties commit to reinvest an additional SEK 2bn the company’s accretive growth journey. Closing expected during Q3, subject to EU competition filing process. See OSE announcement.

• Enivest: Announced agreement to acquire Enivest for NOK2.5 bn, one of the leading fibre operators in Western Norway, with approx. 29,000 subscribers. See OSE announcement.

• The 3-year buyback programme of NOK 15 billion has commenced, see OSE notice

Norway

Q2

Mobile

• Full effect of back-book price changes made from March 1, affecting 40-50% fewer customers than the price changes made from April last year.

• A smaller back-book hike from Q3.

Fixed

• Broadband:

  • SDU: Full effect of Q1 back-book migrations covering most SDU customers, increasing 5% on average.

  • MDU: full effect of Q1 back-book increases (+30-40 NOK) for most of fibre and HFC customers

• TV: Full quarter effect of more-for-more migration to new TV subscription portfolio from 1 March

• No additional price increases during Q2.

• Telenor’s two largest B2C competitors have announced increased broadband and TV subscription prices over Q2 – Q3 of NOK 40-70 per month.

Sweden

Mobile

Main brand

• Simplification of the Unlimited portfolio. Entry level subscription (highest volume) increased from SEK 449 to 499 with more-for-more logic. Highest price point (low volume) removed.

• Back-book migration generally affects only a small number of mobile customers in Sweden. A few back-book price migrations are however taking place as a result of the new portfolio.

• The level of price increases YTD is on level with last year in terms of numbers of subscribers

Fighter brand (Vimla)

• No front or back-book changes in Q2

Fixed

• Fibre back-book increase of SEK 35 (~5.5%) for a small share of subs with effect from 1 May

DNA

Mobile

• In addition to the Huoleton security-bundled subscription launched in May 2025, (loosely translated to “Worry-free” plan), DNA recently launched Huoleton Plus at an additional ~1 EUR increase (incl. VAT)

• Increase of EUR 3 (incl. VAT) for a subset of Moi subscribers. In addition, a new Moi offering was launched in June.

• Back-book More-for-More migration of a small number of low-end subs at an increase of ~3.90 EUR (incl. VAT).

• Some price increases in B2B with a minor impact.

Fixed

• No significant front or back-book price changes in Q2

Denmark

Mobile

• Year-to-date we have increased prices on close to all products and tiers.

• Q2 entails full-quarter effect of back-book price increases of 10-20 DKK mentioned in Q1 for ~30% of the mobile subscriber base.

  • Additionally, ~15% of the base had price increases effective from April, and a smaller share will take effect from July.

• FWA: Front-book increase across both brands of 20 DKK (+6-8%).

• CBB MIX (streaming product) introductory offers expired in May, lifting front- and back-book prices by 20 DKK.

Fixed

• Price increases of 10-30 DKK across technologies, effective from April.

• Broadband introductory offers have expired for vast majority of addresses

Grameenphone

• Significant macro headwinds QoQ putting pressure on consumer spending.

• A potential de-bottlenecking the flow of commodities through the Strait of Hormuz situation is the key catalyst for a gradual macro improvement in Bangladesh. Note, however, that most international energy experts are clear that it in any case will likely take some for supply value-chains to restart and for prices to normalise, particularly with regards to gas (LNG and LPG).

• Key energy price data points in the country QTD:

  • Transport fuel prices are set monthly in Bangladesh and were stable through Q1 but increased by around 15% in April.

  • Cooking gas prices, a major household expense, are up 40-45% QTD over Q1.

  • Regulated electricity tariffs, which had been stable as of May, rose by close to 17-20% from June.

• On the positive side:

  • According to the BTRC, the number of mobile subscribers in Bangladesh increased by 1.0 mn MoM in April, while Grameenphone added 0.5mn subs in April.

  • The Bangladesh National Budget proposed withdrawal of SIM tax on all SIMs, and no increase in other indirect or direct taxes. Previously Grameenphone had to pay BDT 300 per SIM sold. However, the budget also targets a 20% increase in tax revenues, a fiscally restrictive measure that may carry some implementation risk in Bangladesh.

CelcomDigi

• Earlier this year, the company refreshed its consumer portfolio with a “more‑for‑more” approach to ensure a differentiated position and drive data monetisation.

• Q1 showed improved SR and EBITDA growth. The new CEO Albert Murty - with solid track record from Telenor/Digi - announced a stronger focus on operational efficiencies.

• Interim Q1 dividend of MYR 3.4 sen per share (- 5.5% QoQ and -8% YoY) to be paid by end June 2026.

• CelcomDigi said at their Q1 presentation that the dividend payout ratio last year had been around 100% and that this was also the case for Q1.

• On the 5G joint venture DNB, management also stated that CelcomDigi will support working capital requirements of DNB in the near-term together with the other shareholders. Additional 100 MHz of spectrum is in the process assigned to DNB. The put option of the Ministry of Finance has been completed, with CelcomDigi thus becoming 33.3% shareholders. • For their full Q1 results, see CelcomDigi | Investor Relations

• Telenor’s bond debt was NOK 46 bn at the end of Q1 2026, with ~63% fixed-rate and ~37% floating-rate. The fixed rate was 2.6%, the floating rate was 3.5%, and the blended interest rate was 3.0%.

• EUR 1bn bond with 0.75% coupon repaid in May.

• Our financial debt is mainly in EUR, SEK, NOK, THB and USD.

• Deprecation of NOK will typically increase the FX element of financial costs, while appreciation will decrease financial costs.

• Year 1 of Telenor’s ordinary 3-year buyback programme started in June. Shares valued at NOK 183 mn repurchased in the market during the two weeks; an element to remember for Q2 NIBD calculations. Completion rate for the market portion of year-1 buybacks is 6.6% as per 12 June.

• Remember that the Norwegian state’s pro rata portion of the Year 1 buybacks will be made next year (with a small interest element), most likely in Q2 2027.

• A reminder of items that are set to affect FCF in Q2:

• Seasonally higher interest payments, normally around 0.5bn sequentially higher in Q2 versus Q1. Some increased interest revenues from True proceeds net of May bond repayment.

• NOK ~0.5 bn dividend payment to non-controlling interests in Grameenphone

• Last year we had NOK 0.7bn in working capital outflow in Q2.

• NOK ~0.2bn spectrum payments in Grameenphone and Denmark.

• Lease payments, excluding pre-payments of RoU, are running at around NOK0.9 bn per quarter

• Associate dividends: CelcomDigi, NOK 0.3 bn to be received in June.