Pre Q1 2020 estimates

Before entering the silent period, Telenor Investor Relations reminds analysts about relevant items for the quarter. All listed items should already be publicly known, e.g. through company press releases or local regulators’ announcements.

Things to be aware of in connection with the pre Q1 2020 estimates:

The below mentioned issues are in principle publicly known, e.g. from our own reporting and announcements or based on announcements from local regulators or authorities.

Norway

  • From January 1 2020, the Norkring operation, previously reported as a separate line within Other Units will be split and moved to Telenor Norway and Telenor Infra (passive infrastructure company). In addition, the passive infrastructure operations, formerly operated by Telenor Norway, Norkring and Telenor Real Estate will be moved to Telenor Infra.
  • The total net effect for Telenor Norway of these transfers would approximately impact the 2019 revenue by NOK +0.7 bn, EBITDA by NOK +0.25 bn and EBIT by NOK –0.1 bn
  • MTR reduction from 1 January, see table below.
  • A workforce reduction programme of 170 FTE’s was announced early March 2020. Booking of severance payments will happen in Q1.
  • Price increases on DSL in the consumer market of NOK 20 incl VAT from 1 September 2019. Telenor had around 260k DSL consumer customers at the end of 2019.
  • In March 2019, Ice acquired the MVNO Komplett Mobil, which has been on Telenor’s network. Port out happened in Q2 2019. According to media Komplett mobil had 75k subscribers.
  • Special number regulation from 1 September will impact approx. NOK 40m in 2020.

Sweden

  • A workforce reduction programme of 40 FTE’s was announced on 16 March. Booking of severance payments will happen in Q1.

Denmark

  • MTR reduction from 1 January, see table below.

Thailand

  • Dtac acquired 2×100 MHz in the 26GHz frequency band in a spectrum auction in February 2020. Dtac paid the full amount of THB 974m in Q1 and simultaneously got access to the frequencies.
  • 2020 guidance:
    • Service revenues excl. interconnect: low single digit growth
    • EBITDA: mid-single digit growth
    • Capex: THB 13-15 bn

Malaysia

  • MTR reduction from 1 January, see table below.
  • 2020 guidance:
    • Service revenues: flat to low single digit decline.
    • EBITDA: flat to low single digit decline
    • Capex: around 2019 level

Pakistan

  • Previous telecom taxes was removed with effect from 14 June 2018 and reinstated on 24 April 2019.
  • MTR reduction from 1 January, see table below.

Bangladesh

  • According to statistics published by the regulator BTRC, Grameenphone had flat subscriber development in January.

Other units

  • Other Units will from 1 January 2020 include and report the passive infrastructure company in Norway as a separate line item. The company has estimated yearly revenues of NOK 1.6-1.8 billion and an EBITDA margin of around 40%.

Net financials

  • The majority of Telenor’s net debt is in EUR, USD and SEK. Depreciation of NOK will increase financial cost, while appreciation will decrease financial costs.

FX

  • The Norwegian krone has so far this quarter weakened against most currencies Telenor is exposed to.

Net debt and cash flow

  • On 23 February 2020 Grameenphone paid a deposit of NOK ~1.1 billion as instructed by the Supreme Court related to the ongoing legal process for the BTRC audit.
  • The first of 4 tranches of EUR 100m related to the deferred payment of CEE was received in Q1.

MTR development

Norway 

NOK     

Jan 17 – Feb 18

Mar 18 – Dec 18

Jan 19 – Dec 19

Jan 20 –

 

0.065

0.054

0.043

0.032

Sweden

SEK

Jul 15 – Sep 16

Oct 15 – Jun 17

Jul 17 – Jun 18

Jul 18 –

0.0757

0.0689

0.0643

0.0584

Denmark

DKK

Jan – Dec 2016

Jan 2017-

Jan 2018-

Jan 2019-

0.0541

0.0473

0.0447

0.0385

 Thailand

THB

Jul 13 – Jun 15

Jul 15 – Dec 16

Jan – Dec 17

Jan – Dec 18

0.45

0.34

0.27

0.19

Malaysia 

MYR

2015-2017

2018

2019

2020

0.0365

0.0292

0.0196

0.0099

Pakistan 

MYR

2018

2019

2020

0.90

0.80

0.70

Other things…

  • Digi will report their Q1 results on 23 April.