Pre Q1 2021 estimates

Before entering the silent period, Telenor Investor Relations reminds analysts about relevant items for the quarter. All listed items should already be publicly known, e.g. through company press releases or local regulators’ announcements.

Things to be aware of in connection with the pre Q1 2021 estimates:

The below mentioned issues are in principle publicly known, e.g. from our own reporting and announcements or based on announcements from local regulators or authorities.

Norway

  • Price increases on POTS, DSL, HFC and fiber in the consumer market of NOK 20 incl VAT from 1 July 2020, and POTS NOK 35, xDSL NOK 40 and TV MDU NOK 20 inc. VAT from 1 March 2021. Telenor had around 230’ customers on POTS end of Q4, 135’ customers on xDSL end of Q4, and as presented at the CMD approx. 260’/260’/290’ customers on xDSL/HFC/fiber respectively at the end of 2019.
  • On 5 February 2021 Nkom published the general framework for the planned auction of 2.6 GHz and 3.6 GHz frequencies. The auction is planned to take place in September 2021.

Sweden

  • On 19 January 2021, Net4Mobility, the network joint venture between Telenor Sweden and Tele2, acquired 100 MHz in the 3.5 GHz spectrum to be used for nationwide 5G roll-out. Telenor Sweden paid its share of SEK 333 million in February.
  • Price increase on xDSL from 20 June 2020. Average increase in both closed and open network is SEK 40 VAT. Total subscriber base of ~55’ in Q1 20.

Denmark

  • Multiband spectrum auction ongoing for five frequency bands: 1.5 GHz, 2.1 GHz, 2.3 GHz, 3.5 GHz and 26 GHz bands. Bidders are TDC Net, 3 Denmark and the Telia-Telenor JV TT-Network.

Finland

  • 5G roll-out on track. Current population coverage approximately 1.8 million EoY.

Thailand

  • 2800 base stations on 700 Mhz by end of 2020
  • Outlook 2020 provided Q4 2020
    • Service revenues excl. interconnect: Low-single digit decline
    • EBITDA: Low single-digit decline
    • Capex: THB 13-15 bn
  • In 2021, dtac will pay THB 1.9 bn in 700 Mhz installments, TBH 4.1bn in 900 Mhz installements and THB 3.3bn in 1800 Mhz installments

Malaysia

  • Outlook 2020 provided Q4 2020
    • Service revenues: Low single digit decline
    • EBITDA: Medium single digit decline
    • Capex/sales: 14-15 %
  • 2021: Government initiative launching SPV to roll out national 5G network. Further details to be concluded.
  • On 18 March, Celcom, Digi and Maxis announced that they have concluded a Definitive Agreement to jointly develop and share fibre infrastructure, allowing for faster and more efficient deployment of fibre backhaul to base stations and avoiding duplication of fibre infrastructure in the country.

Pakistan

  • According to statistics published by PTA, Telenor added 416k subscribers in January, out of a total market subscription growth of 1.986m.

Bangladesh

  • On 8 March, Grameenphone acquired additional 2×0.4 MHz in the 1800 MHz frequency band and 2×10 MHz in the 2100 MHz frequency band, for a total consideration of USD 146 million, corresponding to approximately NOK 1.2 billion. The first 25% are to be paid in March, while the remaining 75% are to be paid in five equal instalments over the next five years. All spectrum capex expected booked Q1.
  • Increased subsidiary duty tax from 10 % to 15 % effective from 11 June
  • Significant Market Power directive imposed from July on mobile number portability lock-in period, asymmetrical MTR and approval process for campaigns, packages and services.
  • BTRC directive introducing new base price for P2P SMS to 0.25 Paisa from 0.5 Paisa.
  • According to statistics published by the regulator BTRC, Grameenphone added 1.353m subscribers in January and February, out of a total market subscription growth of 3.22m. As such, Grameenphone reached 80.39m subscribers in February.

Myanmar

  • On 1 February 2021, the military of Myanmar declared a state of emergency. Telenor is concerned about the situation, and our main priority is to ensure the safety and security of Telenor Myanmar’s employees. Parts of the mobile network was affected. The situation remains unclear, and Telenor is closely monitoring the situation.

Other units

  • The sale of Tapad, announced 19 November had a revenue and EBITDA impact of NOK ~430m & NOK ~160m respectively for full year 2020, and a Q1 effect of NOK 140m, NOK 50m.

Net financials

  • The majority of Telenor’s net debt is in EUR, USD and SEK. Depreciation of NOK will increase financial cost, while appreciation will decrease financial costs.

FX

  • The Norwegian krone has so far this quarter slightly strengthened against most currencies Telenor is exposed to.

Net debt and cash flow

  • Sweden spectrum cash booking of SEK 333m in Q1. GP spectrum cash booking of app. NOK 300m in Q1.
  • On 29 January, Telenor received the second instalment from PPF of NOK 1.0 billion related to the sale of the Central and Eastern European operations in 2018

MTR development

Norway 

NOK      Jan 17 – Feb 18 Mar 18 – Dec 18 Jan 19 – Dec 19 Jan 20 –
  0.065 0.054 0.043 0.032

Sweden

SEK Jul 17 – Jun 18 Jul 18 – Dec 19 Jan 20- July 20-
0.0643 0.0584 0.0283 0.0216

Denmark

DKK Jan – Dec 2016 Jan 2017 – Jan 2018 – Jan 2019-
0.0541 0.0473 0.0447 0.0385

 Finland

EUR Feb 2015 – Nov 2018 Dec 2018 – Dec 2019 – Dec 2020-
0.0125 0.0093 0.0089 0.0082

 Thailand

THB Jan – Dec 17 Jan 18 – Dec 19 Jan 2020 – Jan 2021 –
0.27 0.19 0.13 0.12

Malaysia  

MYR 2015-2017 2018 2019 2020-
0.0365 0.0292 0.0196 0.0099

 Pakistan 

PKR   2018 2019 2020-
  0.90 0.80 0.70

 Bangladesh 

BDT       2020-
        0.07

 Other things

  • Grameenphone will report their Q1 results on 20 April.
  • Digi will report their Q1 results on 23 April.
  • Dtac will report their Q1 results on 30 April.