Pre Q3 2021 estimates

Before entering the silent period, Telenor Investor Relations reminds analysts about relevant items for the quarter. All listed items should already be publicly known, e.g. through company press releases or local regulators’ announcements.

Things to be aware of in connection with the pre Q3 2021 estimates:

The below mentioned issues are, in principle, publicly known, e.g., from our own reporting and announcements or based on announcements from local regulators or authorities.

Norway

  • Launched new unlimited mobile subscription (June), Next family: Only one in the family pays the regular monthly price (NOK 549, 599 or 799) while others get a family discount. Adults in the Next Familie group pay a discounted price of NOK 449 and children under 18 pay NOK 349, regardless of the subscription type.
  • Price increase for SDU fibre and HFC of approx. NOK 30 incl. VAT from 1 July.
  • On 27 September 2021, the 3.5 GHz and 2.6 GHz auction started with the following rules:
    • 2.6 GHz: 2×70 FDD and 1×50 TDD. 3.6 GHz: 400 TDD
    • Spectrum caps 80 MHz in 2.6 GHz and 120 MHz in 3.6 GHz band
    • Minimum prices for 2×5 MHz in 2.6 GHz and 1×10 MHz in 3.6 GHz are NOK 25M
    • Minimum price 1×50 MHz in 2.6 GHz TDD is NOK 50M

Sweden

  • Price increase on fibre open network from 1 March 2021. Average increase in both open and closed network is SEK 7 incl. VAT. Total fibre subscriber base of ~650’ in Q1 21.

Denmark

  • Loss of a public SKI contract of approximately 50k subscriptions.

 

Finland

  • 5G rollout on track. Population coverage approximately 2.3 million as of June.

Thailand

  • Strict lockdowns imposed in various parts of the country this quarter. Curfew from 9pm-4am was imposed in key provinces including Bangkok from 12th of July.
  • Between 20th July and 30th August, malls were closed, restaurants were only allowed take-out and domestic travel was discouraged. From September 1st, the measures have eased and now malls and restaurants are open with preventive measures. Curfews from 9pm-4am are still in place.
  • Discussions underway on reopening 5 provinces to tourists without 14-day quarantine. Bangkok’s reopening has been postponed from 1st October to 15th
  • Outlook 2021
    • Service revenues excl. interconnect: Flat to low single-digit decline
    • EBITDA: Flat to low single-digit growth
    • Capex: THB 13-15
  • In 2021, dtac will pay THB 1.9 bn in 700 MHz instalments, TBH 4.1bn in 900 MHz instalments and THB 3.3bn in 1800 MHz instalments (expected Q4 2021).

Malaysia

  • Currently 70% received at least one dose and 60% fully vaccinated. Targeting 80% vaccination rate by year end.
  • Outlook 2021:
    • Service revenues: Low single digit decline
    • EBITDA: Mid-single digit decline
    • Capex/sales: 14-15 %

Pakistan

  • SIM issuance tax of PKR 250 abolished.
  • According to statistics published by the regulator PTA, Telenor Pakistan added 163k subscribers in July and 55k in August, out of a total market subscription growth of 1.3 million. As such, Telenor Pakistan reached 49.5m subscribers in August.

Bangladesh

  • Lockdowns imposed from April were lifted in August. Currently no local or national lockdown on workplaces.
  • According to statistics published by the regulator BTRC, Grameenphone gained 450k subscribers in July, out of a total market subscription increase of 530k. Consequently, Grameenphone reached 82.5 M subscribers in July.

Other units

  • The sale of Tapad, announced 19 November, had revenue and EBITDA impact of NOK ~430M & NOK ~160M respectively for full year 2020, and a Q3 effect of NOK 128M and NOK 48M, on revenue and EBITDA respectively.

Net financials

  • Most of the Telenor’s net debt is in EUR, USD and SEK. Depreciation of NOK will increase financial cost, while appreciation will decrease financial costs.

FX

  • The Norwegian krone has, so far this quarter, strengthened against most currencies Telenor is exposed to, with significant strengthening against PKR.

Net debt and cash flow

  • The third instalment from PPF of around NOK 1bn related to the sale of Central and Eastern European operations received in Q3.

MTR development

Norway 

NOK      Jan 17 – Feb 18 Mar 18 – Dec 18 Jan 19 – Dec 19 Jan 20 –
  0.065 0.054 0.043 0.032

Sweden

SEK Jul 17 – Jun 18 Jul 18 – Dec 19 Jan 20- July 20-
0.0643 0.0584 0.0283 0.0216

Denmark 

DKK Jan – Dec 2016 Jan 2017 – Jan 2018 – Jan 2019-
0.0541 0.0473 0.0447 0.0385

 Finland

EUR Dec 2018 – Dec 2019 – Dec 2020- July 2021-
0.0093 0.0089 0.0082 0.0070

 Thailand

THB Jan – Dec 17 Jan 18 – Dec 19 Jan 2020 – Jan 2021 –
0.27 0.19 0.13 0.12

Malaysia 

MYR 2015-2017 2018 2019 2020-
0.0365 0.0292 0.0196 0.0099

 Pakistan 

PKR 2018 2019 2020-
0.90 0.80 0.70

 Bangladesh 

BDT 2020-
0.07

 Other things

  • Grameenphone will report its Q3 results on 21st October.
  • Digi will report its Q3 results on 21st October.
  • Dtac will report its Q3 results on 25th October.
YTD Q3 2021 FX rates    
Sweden SEK/NOK 1.0070
Denmark DKK/NOK 1.3747
Finland EUR/NOK 10.2233
Thailand THB/NOK 0.2714
Malaysia MYR/NOK 2.0694
Bangladesh BDT/NOK 0.1009
Pakistan PKR/NOK 0.0538