Pre Q3 2020 estimates

Before entering the silent period, Telenor Investor Relations reminds analysts about relevant items for the quarter. All listed items should already be publicly known, e.g. through company press releases or local regulators’ announcements.

Things to be aware of in connection with the pre Q3 2020 estimates:

The below mentioned issues are in principle publicly known, e.g. from our own reporting and announcements or based on announcements from local regulators or authorities.

Norway

  • Price increases on POTS, DSL, HFC and fiber in the consumer market of NOK 20 incl VAT from 1 July 2020. Telenor had around 270’ customers on POTS end of Q2, and as presented at the CMD approx. 260’/260’/290’ customers on xDSL/HFC/fiber respectively at the end of 2019.
  • Regulatory requirement to uphold copper network for wholesale customers for 5 years from 2 September 2020.
  • On 22nd June 2020 Nkom published the consultation on the general framework for the planned auction of 2.6 GHz and 3.6 GHz frequencies in 2021. Publication of final action rules planned Q1 2021 and auction by H1 2021.

Sweden

  • Price increase on xDSL from 20 June 2020. Average increase in both closed and open network is SEK 40 incl. VAT. Total subscriber base of ~55’ in Q1 20.
  • Auction date for 3.5Ghz licences set to 10 Nov.
  • Telenor Sweden will launch 5G on the C-band in Stockholm end of October.

Denmark

  • Telenor enters into new fibre agreement with Fibia Fibernet, getting acces to 500.000 adresses.
  • Spectrum auction delayed (planned Q4 2020). Revisited timeline to be published by Energy Agency by Sept.

Thailand

  • In Thailand, the COVID-19 related state of emergency was extended until end of September. All businesses were allowed to reopen, but borders remain generally closed, impacting tourism and macroeconomy.
  • Outlook 2020 provided Q2 2020:
    • Service revenues excl. interconnect: Low-single digit decline
    • EBITDA: At 2019 level
    • Capex: THB 8-10 billion

Malaysia

  • Outlook 2020 provided Q2 2020:
    • Service revenues: Low single digit service revenue decline
    • EBITDA: Medium-single digit decline
    • Capex: around 2019 level
  • Recovery Movement Control Order extended to 31 December 2020. The COVID-19 related movement restrictions are somewhat relaxed, allowing people to move more freely. However, the travel ban across borders remains intact.

Pakistan

  • In Pakistan, economic activities have resumed after the government removed lockdown measures, with effect from 15 September, as the number of new COVID-19 cases has been decreasing. Still precautionary measures and social distancing guidelines in place.
  • According to statistics published by the regulator PTA, Telenor Pakistan gained 455k  subscribers in July and 311k in August.

Bangladesh

  • In Bangladesh, government offices reopened on 9 August, while educational institutions remain closed until 3 October.
  • Increased subsidiary duty tax from 10 % to 15 % effective from 11 June 2020.
  • Significant Market Power directive imposed from July on mobile number portability lock-in period and approval process for campaigns, packages and services.
  • According to statistics published by the regulator BTRC, Grameenphone added 1.6 million subscribers in July, out of a total market subscription growth of 3 million.

Myanmar

  • SIM re-registration demanding all SIMs to be registered ongoing from 30 April. The regulation sets a limit of max 2 SIMs per ID card/per operator.
  • Temporary abolishment of regulatory price floor due to COVID-19 crisis prolonged until October.

Net financials

  • The majority of Telenor’s net debt is in EUR, USD and SEK. Depreciation of NOK will increase financial cost, while appreciation will decrease financial costs.

FX

  • The Norwegian krone has so far this quarter remained relatively stable against most currencies Telenor is exposed to, except for the USD, which has weakened compared to the NOK.

Net debt and cash flow

  • On 1 September Telenor divested a portfolio of development properties in Norway for a total consideration of NOK 1.4 bn including earn-out, of which NOK 0.4 bn was owned by the Telenor employees’ pension fund. An accounting gain of NOK 500 million will be booked in the quarter, with an approximate NOK 750 million cash inflow to Telenor.
  • Digi – Malaysia On 13 July 2020, the Board of Directors of Digi declared the second interim dividend for 2020 of MYR 0.037 per share, which corresponds to approximately NOK 0.6 billion total dividend and approximately NOK 0.3 billion for Telenor’s ownership share.
  • Grameenphone – Bangladesh On 14 July 2020, the Board of Directors of Grameenphone Ltd. declared the interim dividend for 2020 of BDT 13.0 per share, which corresponds to approximately NOK 2.0 billion total dividend and approximately NOK 1.1 billion for Telenor’s ownership share.
  • dtac – Thailand On 15 July 2020, the Board of Directors in dtac declared the interim dividend for 2020 of THB 0.87 per share, which corresponds to approximately NOK 0.6 billion total dividend and approximately NOK 0.4 billion for Telenor’s ownership share.

MTR development

Norway 

NOK     

Jan 17 – Feb 18

Mar 18 – Dec 18

Jan 19 – Dec 19

Jan 20 –

 

0.065

0.054

0.043

0.032

Sweden

SEK

Jul 17 – Jun 18

Jul 18 – Dec 19

Jan 20-

July 20-

0.0643

0.0584

0.0283

0.0216

Denmark

DKK

Jan – Dec 2016

Jan 2017 –

Jan 2018 –

Jan 2019-

0.0541

0.0473

0.0447

0.0385

 Finland

EUR

Feb 2015 – Nov 2018

Dec 2018 –

Dec 2019 –

Dec 2020-

0.0125

0.0093

0.0089

0.0082

 Thailand

THB

Jul 15 – Dec 16

Jan – Dec 17

Jan 18 – Dec 19

Jan 2020 –

0.34

0.27

0.19

0.13

Malaysia 

MYR

2015-2017

2018

2019

2020

0.0365

0.0292

0.0196

0.0099

 Pakistan 

PKR

2018

2019

2020

0.90

0.80

0.70

 Other things 

  • Digi will report their Q3 results on 16 October.
  • Dtac will report their Q3 results on 16 October.