Pre Q3 2019 estimates

Before entering the silent period, Telenor Investor Relations reminds analysts about relevant items for the quarter. All listed items should already be publicly know, e.g. through company press releases or local regulators’ announcements.

Dear analyst,

We will be entering a silent period from 4 October and until the Q3 results are released on 23 October.

We kindly ask you to fill in your estimates for Q3 2019 and the years 2019-2022 and forward to us in the attached template. In return we will as usual send you the consensus estimates. Please reply to this email or return your estimates to IR@telenor.com.

We would be happy to receive your contribution as soon as possible and latest by Wednesday 3 October at 3 pm CET.

 

Things to be aware of in connection with the pre Q3 2019 estimates:

The below mentioned issues are in principle publicly known, e.g. from our own reporting and announcements or based on announcements from local regulators or authorities.

 

Norway

  • MTR reduction from 1 January, see table below.
  • In March, Ice acquired the MVNO Komplett Mobil, which has been on Telenor’s network. Port out happened in Q2. According to media Komplett mobil had 75k subscribers.
  • Special number regulation from 1 September will impact approx. NOK 40m in 2019 and NOK 40m in 2020.
  • In June, Telenor acquired 2×10 MHz of spectrum in the 700 MHz frequency band for NOK 180m which will be booked as capex in Q4.

 Denmark

  • MTR reduction from 1 January, see table below.

Thailand

  • Dtac outlook for 2019 from CMD. Low single digit service revenue decline. EBITDA of THB 24-25 bn. Capex ex. Licences of THB 13-15 bn.


Malaysia

  • MTR reduction from 1 January, see table below.


Pakistan

  • According to statistics published by the regulator PTA, Telenor Pakistan gained 154k and 361k subscribers in July and August, respectively.
  • Previous telecom taxes was removed with effect from 14 June 2018 and reinstated on 24 April 2019.
  • A pre-payment of USD 225m related to renewal of 900MHz and 1800 MHz spectrum was made in Q3.
  • In Q3 2018, there was a reversal of accrual amounting to NOK 507m, of which NOK 76m on revenues and NOK 431m on cogs.
  • MTR reduction from 1 January, see table below.



Bangladesh

  • According to statistics published by the regulator BTRC, Grameenphone added 103k subscribers in July and 186k subscribers in August.
  • A uniform voice tariff was introduced by the regulator with effect from mid-August 2018, removing the previous difference between on-net and off-net tariffs. The uniform call rates has a positive impact of approximately 3-4pp on subscription and traffic revenues.


Other units

  • In Q3 2018 Telenor Global Wholesale made a reversal of provisions amounting to NOK 163m.


Net financials

  • The majority of Telenor’s net debt is in EUR and USD. Depreciation of NOK will increase financial cost, while appreciation will decrease financial costs.

FX

  • The Norwegian krone has so far this quarter weakened against most currencies Telenor is exposed to.

           

Net debt and cash flow

  • Payment of 54% of the shares in DNA. Total consideration EUR 1.5 bn or approx. NOK 14.8 bn. A mandatory tender offer for the remaining shares is running until 26 September with payment in Q4.
  • Payment to the Norwegian government for their proportionate share of the 2018 buyback programme. In total NOK 2.4 billion paid in July.
  • As of 19 September, Telenor has repurchased 8.9 million own shares for approximately NOK 1.5 billion.
  • In Q2, Digi declared the second interim dividend for 2019 of MYR 0.05 per share, which corresponds to approximately NOK 0.8 billion total dividend and approximately NOK 0.4 billion for Telenor’s ownership share.
  • In Q2, Grameenphone Ltd. declared interim dividend for 2019 of BDT 9.0 per share, which corresponds to approximately NOK 1.2 billion total dividend and approximately NOK 0.7 billion for Telenor’s ownership share.
  • In Q2, dtac declared the interim dividend for 2019 of THB 1.26 per share, which corresponds to approximately NOK 0.8 billion total dividend and approximately NOK 0.5 billion for Telenor’s ownership share.


MTR development

Norway 

NOK      Jan 17 – Feb 18 Mar 18 – Dec 18 Jan 19 – Dec 19 Jan 20 –
  0.065 0.054 0.043 0.032

Sweden

SEK Jul 15 – Sep 16 Oct 15 – Jun 17 Jul 17 – Jun 18 Jul 18 –
0.0757 0.0689 0.0643 0.0584

Denmark

DKK Jan – Dec 2016 Jan 2017- Jan 2018- Jan 2019-
0.0541 0.0473 0.0447 0.0385

 Thailand

THB Jul 13 – Jun 15 Jul 15 – Dec 16 Jan – Dec 17 Jan – Dec 18
0.45 0.34 0.27 0.19

Malaysia 

MYR 2015-2017 2018 2019 2020
0.0365 0.0292 0.0196 0.0099

 Pakistan 

MYR 2018 2019 2020
0.90 0.80 0.70

 

Other things…

  • Dtac will report their Q3 results on 16 October and Digi on 18 October.

Best regards,
Øystein and Håkon
Telenor Investor Relations
IR@telenor.com